《保险研究》20250107-《延迟退休政策下职工弹性退休意愿与养老保险基金可持续性》（陈肖华、杨再贵、朱冠平）

［摘   要］2024年9月《国务院关于渐进式延迟法定退休年龄的办法》出台，于2025年1月起实施提高职工法定退休年龄的延迟退休政策。这一政策的实际效果如何，能否如期提高养老保险基金的财务可持续性？政策强调“弹性实施”的原则，那么职工的弹性退休意愿又会对基金可持续性产生怎样的影响？本文采用理论分析与精算模拟相结合的方法探讨了上述问题。研究发现，延迟退休政策在实施的15年间会显著增强基金可持续性，当期结余和累计结余的年均增幅分别为0.015万亿元和0.244万亿元，总体平均增幅分别达到0.222万亿元和1.662万亿元；但政策的有利效果不会持久，在未来30年内呈现先增后降趋势：对当期结余和累计结余的增幅分别在2034年和2042年达到峰值后逐步转负，难以从根本上扭转长期财务压力。进一步引入弹性退休制度后发现，延迟退休政策的效果不会发生显著变化。本研究可识别使政策有利效果达到最佳和次佳的职工弹性退休选择方式，为政策实施中积极推行弹性退休措施及其优化提供实证依据。

［关键词］基本养老保险；延迟退休政策；弹性退休；基金可持续性

［基金项目］江西省社会科学基金项目(23SH22D)；教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(24YJC840006)；教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790091)；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(23YJA630119)；北京市社科基金重点项目(24GLA005)；国家自然科学基金地区项目(72461012)；江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(SH22206)；江西省教育厅科技项目一般项目(GJJ2400408)。

［作者简介］陈肖华，江西财经大学金融学院讲师，硕士生导师，研究方向：养老保险精算及养老金融；杨再贵，中央财经大学中国精算研究院教授，博士生导师，社保精算研究中心主任，研究方向：社保精算；朱冠平(通讯作者)，江西财经大学金融学院讲师，硕士生导师，研究方向：风险管理。

Flexible Retirement Preferences and China′s Social Pension Fund Sustainability under the Delayed Retirement Policy

CHEN Xiao-hua,YANG Zai-gui,ZHU Guan-ping

Abstract：In September 2024,the "State Council′s Plan for Gradual Postponement of the Statutory Retirement Age" was approved and will be implemented in January 2025 to raise the statutory retirement age for employees.How effective is this policy in enhancing the financial sustainability of the basic social pension fund as expected? During the implementation process,the principle of "flexible implementation" is emphasized.How will different flexible retirement preferences of employees affect the fund′s sustainability? This study employs a combination of theoretical analysis and actuarial simulations to address these questions.The results show that the delayed retirement policy significantly improves the fund′s sustainability over the first 15 years of implementation,with the annual average increases in current balance and cumulative balance reaching ￥0.015 trillion and ￥0.244 trillion,respectively,and the total average increases reaching ￥0.222 trillion and ￥1.662 trillion.However,the beneficial effects of the policy are not sustained,exhibiting a rise-then-decline pattern over the next 30 years:the increases in current balance and cumulative balance peak in 2034 and 2042,respectively,before turning negative,failing to fundamentally alleviate long-term financial pressures.Further analysis indicates that the introducing of flexible retirement preferences does not significantly alter the effects of the delayed retirement policy.Importantly,the optimal and second-best flexible retirement options that maximize the policy′s positive effects are identified,thus providing empirical support for promoting and optimizing flexible retirement measures during policy implementation.

Key words：basic social pension;delayed retirement policy;flexible retirement;fund sustainability

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